MISSING FROM CARE: CONTINUING HARM TO KIDS FROM PANDEMIC DISRUPTIONS, NOT COVID, TAKING AN UNSEEN TOLL, BURIED BY EXPERT LIES
As pandemic effects, millions of kids who were in school are now chronically absent, disenrolled, or entirely unaccounted for, at higher risk than school peers for substance use and mental health problems – measures celebrated by experts as remarkably improved for American youth as determined by national surveys given exclusively to students attending school.
by Clark Miller
Published February 21 , 2025
The headline for this recent piece in The Hill captures it pretty well.
A new study has experts beaming with hope as it shows teen drug use at a record low, but they admit confusion as to why the trend is happening and how to ensure it continues.
The annual national Monitoring the Future survey found the use of alcohol, marijuana, cigarettes and e-cigarettes among high schoolers is at its lowest level since the study began. Two-thirds of 12th graders in the survey, which included 24,000 students in total, said they haven’t used any of those substances in the last 30 days, and 90 percent of eighth graders and 80 percent of 10th graders said the same.
That dovetails with other research, including from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which found youth drug use fell from 2011-2021, with a particularly noticeable drop from 2019-2021.
Beaming indeed, here’s America’s top expert on substance use responding to the results, from this report,
“This trend in the reduction of substance use among teenagers is unprecedented,” said Nora D. Volkow, M.D., director of NIH’s National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA). “We must continue to investigate factors that have contributed to this lowered risk of substance use to tailor interventions to support the continuation of this trend.”
Reported use for almost all measured substances decreased dramatically between 2020 and 2021, after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and related changes like school closures and social distancing. In 2022 and 2023, most reported substance use among adolescents held steady at these lowered levels, with similar trends and some decreases in use in 2024.
Let’s take a moment to consider those two national surveys, it’s important. Described here, the Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey is administered in their schools to students attending public and private schools across the U.S.
The Monitoring the Future survey is conducted by researchers at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and funded by NIDA. The survey is given annually to students in eighth, 10th, and 12th grades who self-report their substance use behaviors over various time periods, such as past 30 days, past 12 months, and lifetime. The survey also documents students’ perceptions of harm, disapproval of use, and perceived availability of drugs. ..
All participating students took the survey via the web – either on tablets or on a computer – with 99% of respondents taking the survey in-person in school in 2024.
Also released last year, 2024, were results of the National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS), an annual survey similar in sample population and methodology to the MTF survey and with data analyzed by the FDA and CDC.
Per this report,
The National Youth Tobacco Survey is an annual, school-based, self-administered survey of U.S. students in middle (grades 6 to 8) and high school (grades 9 to 12).
Survey Methods and Findings
In the new National Youth Tobacco Survey, researchers asked U.S. youths to answer questions regarding their e-cigarette and nicotine pouch use between January 22 and May 22, 2024.
The researchers found that the proportion of U.S. middle school and high school students who reported current e-cigarette use within the past 30 days decreased from 7.7% (n = 2.13 million) in 2023 to 5.9% (n = 1.63 million) in 2024. The decline was largely driven by reduced e-cigarette use among high school students (1.56 million to 1.21 million), with no statistically significant change in current e-cigarette use among middle school students within the past 1 year. The researchers noted that the number of youths who reported using e-cigarettes in 2024 was approximately one-third of what it was at its peak in 2019, when over 5 million youths reported current e-cigarette use.
Responses of top experts were no less confident and positive than for the MTF survey –
“The continued decline in e-cigarette use among our nation’s youths is a monumental public health win,” highlighted Brian King, PhD, MPH, Director of the Center for Tobacco Products at the FDA. “This progress is a testament to the relentless efforts by the FDA, CDC, and others, particularly over the past half decade.
Limitations for interpretation of the NYTS results were described by the CDC here (for the 2023 survey).
The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. First, data were obtained by self-report, which can result in social desirability and recall biases, although previous research suggests that self-reported measures of tobacco use among persons aged 12–21 years correlate with biomarkers of tobacco use (8). Second, these findings might not be generalizable to youths who are home-schooled, have dropped out of school, are in detention centers, or are enrolled in alternative schools. Finally, the response rate for the 2023 NYTS was lower than that for the 2022 NYTS (30.5% in 2023 versus 45.2% in 2022). The lower response rate can increase the potential for bias and result in higher SEs for some estimates; higher SEs can reduce the power to detect a significant difference, if there is one, when doing year to year comparisons, especially for certain population groups.
As we’ll see, those generalized concerns – ignored consistently in the media reporting frenzy of remarkable reductions in problem youth substance use – don’t come close to capturing the predictable effects on outcomes tied to self-report and on recent escalations in dystopian electronic surveillance and threats of punishment in schools, addressed in an upcoming post:
“SHAM SURVEYS: PRISON-LIKE SURVEILLANCE AND PUNISHMENTS NULLIFY VALIDITY OF NATIONAL IN-SCHOOL ELECTRONIC SELF-DISCLOSURE OF STUDENT DRUG USE”.
For now, below, we’ll focus on a different, independently distorting survey error –
how the unexplored concern related to sampling bias (“might not be generalizable to youths who are home-schooled, have dropped out of school, are in detention centers, or are enrolled in alternative schools”) grossly fails to address the sampling bias evidenced as predictably inherent in outcomes tied to pandemic effects on school attendance and characteristics of that population of youth non-attendees affected post-COVID.
As we explore the data and evidence describing those factors and sampling bias, it may be natural and in any case valuable for readers to begin to wonder, to hypothesize about the key question of whether and how that subpopulation – roughly doubling as a pandemic effect – might differ from students returning to and regularly attending school (most likely to take the surveys) regarding substance use, mental health, and other problems, in addition to being much less likely to be surveyed due to chronic absenteeism or with no probability of that due to their not returning post-pandemic.
That’s the key question that we would have expected top experts and journalists to have addressed and taken into account as directly and likely powerfully affecting interpretation of survey results – addressed prior to their unified assurances to a trusting public of the results representing a monumental triumph for public health and a clear indication that American youth are at remarkably reduced risk of problem substance use.
Let’s take a closer look.
There are two primary subpopulations to account for over the period beginning with school re-openings post-pandemic and a third, less researched, in a grey zone.
1) Middle- and high school-aged youth who have become chronically absent (variously defined) while enrolled in schools that are included in the national surveys.
2) The same age group youth who have become no longer enrolled, are “lost”
3) The same age group youth who are administratively enrolled and who are not appearing at all in school, or almost never
It’s important to ground ourselves as a first step in a critically important consideration – that these surveys are presented and messaged – and potentially have value – as providing a picture of prevalence of problem substance use in a demographic, an age group, of vulnerable Americans, in this case young people, school-aged youth.
The surveys were conducted in schools, reaching only members of the target population (youth) enrolled in school and attending regularly enough to be present on a day the surveys were administered.
Let’s consider. Studies have found that pandemic years and stressors including school disruptions have had profound effects on school attendance.
Some reported figures include that over post-pandemic years, “Public school enrollment remained depressed, down by over 1 million students”. Reasons offered have been related to pandemic stressors and disruptions,”Some experienced homelessness, lost interest or motivation, or struggled with mental health. Some needed to work or assume adult responsibilities. Some fell behind in online school and didn’t see the point of re-engaging.”
That figure is for students not enrolled or attending at all. The figure for “chronic absenteeism” (defined in most states as being enrolled and missing 18 days or more of the school year) is 6.5 million.
Let’s start with absenteeism, from this report.
Across the country, students have been absent at record rates since schools reopened during the pandemic. More than a quarter of students missed at least 10% of the 2021-22 school year, making them chronically absent, according to the most recent data available. Before the pandemic, only 15% of students missed that much school.
All told, an estimated 6.5 million additional students became chronically absent, according to the data, which was compiled by Stanford University education professor Thomas Dee in partnership with The Associated Press. Taken together, the data from 40 states and Washington, D.C., provides the most comprehensive accounting of absenteeism nationwide. Absences were more prevalent among Latino, Black and low-income students, according to Dee’s analysis.
Varying by state, large differences persisted post-pandemic into 2022.
And those differences persisted into 2023.
What does the evidence say about prevalence of problem substance use and other mental health conditions for this pandemic-effects absentee population?
“Chronic absenteeism” is not uniformly defined, and as defined, for example as a student missing 10 percent of the school year days or more, included in that population will be those absent that 10 percent of the time to absenteeism ranging in degree to students like this one,
In New York, Marisa Kosek said son James lost the relationships fostered at his school — and with them, his desire to attend class altogether. James, 12, has autism and struggled first with online learning and then with a hybrid model. During absences, he’d see his teachers in the neighborhood. They encouraged him to return, and he did.
But when he moved to middle school in another neighborhood, he didn’t know anyone. He lost interest and missed more than 100 days of sixth grade. The next year, his mom pushed for him to repeat the grade — and he missed all but five days.
Within that range, some common factors identified as correlates of chronic absenteeism include
… finances, housing instability, illness, transportation issues, school staffing shortages, anxiety, depression, bullying and generally feeling unwelcome at school.
For a study published in 2023 of 120,000 Minnesota 8th through 11th grade students “commonly absent”, factors identified as associated included
… 18 risk factors that were predominantly linked with students who reported missing school commonly. Some of the risk factors included drug or alcohol use, peer pressure and the approval of friends, staying home due to sickness, behavioral issues that may lead to out-of-school suspensions, family struggles, and adverse childhood experiences.
[emphasis added]
Adverse childhood experiences (ACE) are predictors of problem substance use, mood disturbance, and other problems.
From a study published September 2024 –
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, rates of chronic absenteeism have nearly doubled across the nation for students in kindergarten through grade 12.
This increase was tied to the mode of instruction during the early years of the pandemic. In particular, schools that employed virtual learning as the primary teaching mode during the 2020–21 school year experienced a greater increase in chronic absenteeism in the following year. ..
The study analyzed data for two years from more than 11,000 school districts across the United States and found that chronic absenteeism rates increased from 16% in 2018–19 to nearly 30% in the 2021–22 school year.
Students whose schools had full virtual instruction during the pandemic had chronic absenteeism rates that were nearly 7 percentage points higher than those schools that were fully in person, according to the research. …
As reported in the study, chronic absenteeism has been shown to lead to lower test scores, reduced social and educational interactions, lower rates of high school graduation and increased substance use. The increase in chronic absenteeism began to occur as public schools in the U.S. were attempting to return to pre-pandemic modes of in-person teaching.
Previous studies have indicated that moving away from in-person instruction during the 2020–21 school year to online teaching methods reduced student achievement and educational development, adversely affected children’s mental well-being and decreased school enrollment. …
The research also indicated that chronic absenteeism rates hit at-risk students and school districts with the highest levels of poverty the hardest. Those school districts saw chronic absenteeism soar more than 10 percentage points higher among students who had participated in fully remote instruction, versus in-person learning.
“There is growing evidence that those in the most precarious situations were the ones that were really hurt the most by virtual instruction,” Evans said
[emphasis added]
A UC Davis study published May 2024 in the Journal of Pediatrics looked at association of vaping of nicotine and tobacco with absenteeism (missing 3 or more full days in the past 4 weeks of school) for 287,653 high school students in 9th and 11th grades in California for post-pandemic years 2021-2022, finding that vaping and absenteeism were highly correlated.
Those results, congruent with others we’ve reviewed, point to the effect that invalidates the claims of gains against youth substance use based on recent national surveys, because degree of absenteeism by a student reduces likelihood of inclusion in the surveys administered in schools, and thereby biases the surveyed sample by undercount against accurate measure of vaping prevalence (or other measure of wellbeing). As acknowledged by the researchers –
One of the limitations of this analysis is that all variables were based on students’ self-reported responses. Although the survey was anonymous, students may not feel comfortable sharing their substance use or absence patterns and may under-report these items. …
Last, the CHKS is not representative of all students in California. Students who are absent on the day of the survey may not be included.
Those are interesting ways to express the limitations.
The surveys, like others in schools, are voluntary, so that apart from underreporting, students who don’t feel safe disclosing their substance use may choose to not participate at all. We’ll focus on that question in the upcoming post –
“SHAM SURVEYS: PRISON-LIKE SURVEILLANCE AND PUNISHMENTS NULLIFY VALIDITY OF NATIONAL IN-SCHOOL ELECTRONIC SELF-DISCLOSURE OF STUDENT DRUG USE”.
And, “Students who are absent on the day of the survey may not be included” ?
They may not be included, and their probability of being surveyed diminishes to approach 0 (zero) as number of days missed per month increases from the minimum for inclusion in “absenteeism” (3 missed days in the past 4 weeks) to more days, or nearly all days or all days.
In the context of evidence establishing the comparatively high prevalence of vaping, other problem substance use, and other mental health challenges among the large post-pandemic population of students with elevated absenteeism, supporting the validity of measured outcomes and interpretations of the recent national surveys of youth wellbeing requires supporting with evidence that students in that population were not significantly less likely to be surveyed than regular school attenders. Lacking that evidence, as far as we know, prevalence of vaping and other problem substance use for American youth have been increasing as those problems seem to be in other countries.
While the probability of surveying youth most likely to be affected by problem substance use and other problems has diminished due to absenteeism and pandemic effects – necessarily invalidating the recent national survey results – that probability is zero for each and every ex-student who has been lost from connection with public or private schools participating in those surveys.
An analysis by The Associated Press, Stanford University’s Big Local News project and Stanford education professor Thomas Dee found an estimated 230,000 students in 21 states whose absences could not be accounted for. These students didn’t move out of state, and they didn’t sign up for private school or home-school, according to publicly available data.
In short, they’re missing. …
Over months of reporting, the AP learned of students and families avoiding school for a range of reasons. Some are still afraid of COVID-19, are homeless, or have left the country. Some students couldn’t study online and found jobs instead. Some slid into depression.
During the prolonged online learning, some students fell so far behind developmentally and academically that they no longer knew how to behave or learn at school. Many of these students, while largely absent from class, are still officially on school rosters. That makes it harder to truly count the number of missing students. The real tally of young people not receiving an education is likely far greater than the 230,000 figure calculated by the AP and Stanford.
In some cases, this wasn’t sudden. Many students were struggling well before the pandemic descended. …
The true number of missing students is likely much higher. The analysis doesn’t include data from 29 states, including Texas and Illinois, or the unknown numbers of ghost students who are technically enrolled but rarely make it to class.
Again, as for the problem of markedly increased chronic absenteeism, supporting the assumption that the interpretations of the celebrated recent national surveys on youth problem substance use are not profoundly distorted requires evidence establishing that prevalence of those problems are not significantly greater for this population of unsurveyed youth than for peers attending schools regularly, consenting to be surveyed, and providing true responses.
The course of events and developments with reassuring gains for the wellbeing of American youth, enormously relieving and celebratory from all constructed and effectively messaged appearances, is remarkable as an accomplishment, even for America’s expert class.
The accomplishment of pulling it off, of flooding the collective awareness with just what it needed and would have to appreciate, be grateful for – Good News, and good news about America’s youth who, by the remarkable efforts of our public healthcare institutions are now little affected by problems with substance use, are better off than they have been for years, in an “unprecedented” and “monumental public health win”. Good news desperately needed to attempt to hold together a sheen of competence and credibility while those experts’ gold standard treatments fuel a decades-long, worsening, expert-generated opioid crisis.
Pulling that off all evidence to the contrary and, as we have seen here, with gross, negligent, harm-predicting disregard of the obvious factors that clearly invalidate the triumphant assertions of reduced risk and vulnerability for American youth.
Pulling that deception off, despite warnings on methodological limitations provided in research articles describing their own surveys; despite clear evidence, widely dispensed in major media, of pandemic effects occurring to drive students who are most vulnerable, at risk, most likely affected by drug use, out of their schools, out of the likelihood of being included in the surveys that so confusingly (for our experts) measured drops in drug use prevalence, as highest-risk students were being driven out, not to be counted, driven out by other, protected, top experts whose reckless incompetence and criminal traits enabled a pandemic that killed millions, whose lies and attempts to repair a sheen of decency and authority compelled them to shut down schools without need; despite painfully obvious, media-affirming accounts of the alienation of kids and parents from their own schools, the loss of a sense of real versus virtual connection, of safety; despite inescapable signs and evidence of a mental health crisis among youth exposed daily to a world degraded and defiled by adults in charge abusing power without accountability, of malevolent, big-brother, technology to spy on, detect, accuse, punish, and harm, – now installed in their schools – with predictable, certain effects (that we will further explore in the upcoming post) on their anxiety, trust, and willingness to complete or be truthful in reporting on surveys their potentially rule-breaking or criminal use of substances.
Despite all that. Are you f***ing kidding me? No, it’s simply what we expect, and get, from America’s expert class.
The headline is perfectly, unintentionally apt.
They are indeed, the experts and their useful idiot media popularizers – as dull, misbehaving, insecure children – “confused”, and very, very relieved, soothed, “delighted” to believe, in their dullness, to have pulled it off, to have covered their failures and harms with the fiction of a remarkable public health achievement, those harmed by their fibs out of sight.
